December 08, 2008- In a news story this morning, vaguely attributed to 'military brass,' the Times of India has claimed that India possess the ability to surgically strike at terrorists training camps in Pakistan.
Nothing could be further from the truth. An attempt to carry out such a strike would likely end in severe embarrassment for the country, if not outright disaster.
Surprisingly, the story suggests that the IAF could carry out such strikes using laser guided bombs delivered by Sukhoi-30MKIs, Mirage-2000s and Jaguars. It would have been more plausible if the capability had been attributed to an operational Brahmos missile unit with the Army, if there is indeed such a unit.
It would be fool hardy for the IAF to undertake a strike mission into Pakistan without first softening its air defense through attacks on fighter and missile bases as well as air defense radar. But that is hardly possible if you do not first declare war!
With Pakistani fighters and missiles in a high state of alert for such a 'surprise' strike several IAF aircraft are likely to be shot down, resulting in not just loss of face but a huge mess because pilots of the shot down aircraft are likely to be captured by Pakistan!
Another more chilling consequence of such a 'surprise' surgical strike is that it could be construed as a nuclear attack by Pakistan. Despite the DRDO charade about our Agni missile variants, India's nuclear deterrent continues to be fighter aircraft based and a 'surprise' Indian fighter attack could be construed as a surprise nuclear attack!! Pakistan has no way of knowing if the incoming Indian aircraft are carrying nuclear or conventional bombs.
It would be ridiculous for Pakistan to assume the attack was nuclear, but no one is crediting Pakistan with much sanity these days.
Besides what would such a surgical strike accomplish? It is not as if the terrorists are going to be waiting in their camps to be bombed. Even if they are caught off guard, all they have to do is jump into a trench to save themselves.
Ironically, Pakistan could carry out such a surgical strike much more easily using its Babur missiles. A Babur missile attack will not require softening of Indian air defenses and if one of the attacking missile was shot down by Indian defenses, a highly unlikely scenario, there would be no Pakistani pilot to capture!
A Babur missile attack by Pakistan would never be construed as a nuclear attack by India because our leadership is sane and Pakistan's nuclear deterrent is missile based.
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